Golden Frontier Update

   I started this blog with a post about my friend's horse -- Golden Frontier.  He was purchased for $1300 as a weanling to keep another horse company.  He broke his maiden earlier this year at Oaklawn and earned a 96 Beyer in the process. After a detour to the Polytrack at Keeneland where he finished 4th in an allowance race, Golden is back on the dirt this Thursday in the 4th Race at Churchill Downs in a six horse field.  He is running in a six and one half furlong allowance race where he is in the sixth post position.  Hopefully his speed and long stride can give him the option of pressing the pace or stalking. 
    Did I mention that he just drilled five furlongs in 58.8 on May 16th and the second fastest time for five furlongs on that day was a Ned Evans bred filly that did five furlongs in 1:00 even?  Everyone is pretty excited about the race, and he seems thrilled to be back on the dirt.  Come by and say hello if you are at Churchill on Thursday. 

The Rise and Fall of Cherokee Run in Kentucky

     In 2007, the place of Cherokee Run and his sons in Kentucky’s breeding industry seemed stable, if not secure.  A Breeder’s Cup Sprint champion in 1994, Cherokee Run was 17 in 2007 and had compiled a solid record at stud.  From eight crops to race he had five percent stakes winners from all starters (25 out of 397) and sixty percent winners from all starters (289 out of 397).  By 2007 some of these sons had joined Cherokee Run at stud in Kentucky.  Cherokee Run and his Grade II-winning and Grade I-placed son Kafwain were at Darley for $40,000 and $10,000, respectively.  During was entering his third year at Claiborne Farm with a stud fee of $7,500 while Yonaguska was beginning his fifth year at Vinery for a $10,000 fee.  Just down Spurr Road, Sir Cherokee was starting his third year at stud at Crestwood Farm for a $7,500 fee. 

     At the end of 2007, Cherokee Run’s son War Pass had romped in the Grade I Champagne and Breeders Cup Juvenile and was awarded the Eclipse Award for Two Year Old Male.  Looking ahead to 2008, while War Pass was not certain to win a Triple Crown race, his speed seemed certain to have a say in those races barring an injury.  Also in 2007, two other sons of Cherokee Run – Zanjero, and Chelokee – had performed well as three year olds and would race as four year olds in 2008.  In particular, Zanjero’s victories at a eight and a half furlongs in the Indiana Derby (GII), nine furlongs in the West Virginia Derby (GIII), and third place finish in the nine furlong Blue Grass Stakes (GI) suggested that he might be able to blend his sire’s speed with stamina from his damsire, A.P. Indy.  These three sons of Cherokee Run seemed likely to improve their race records in 2008 and then join their sire at stud for 2009. 

     Given the on-track success of Cherokee Run in 2007, stallion farms held stud fees constant for Cherokee Run, Kafwain, Yonaguska, and Sir Cherokee in 2008 with only During’s fee dropping to $5,000.  It seemed that a renaissance of Runaway Groom through Cherokee Run and his sons was underway in Central Kentucky with four to seven Cherokee Run line stallions likely to stand at stud in 2009.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the breeding shed as age, injury, bad luck, and the general economic downturn in 2008 and 2009 conspired to end this sire line in Kentucky.              So what happened to Cherokee Run and his sons in Central Kentucky in four years to go from ascendant to absent?   

     Beginning with those stallions that were already at stud in 2007, Darley pensioned Cherokee Run at the end of the 2009 breeding season where he only covered 46 mares.  During was sent to West Virginia in 2010, and Sir Cherokee was sold to a farm in the Philippines at the Keeneland November Sale.  Kafwain was first moved from Darley to Hurstland Farm in Midway, Kentucky before the 2009 breeding season.  Kafwain was then moved again to Tommy Town Thoroughbreds in California in 2010 where he remains.  The Pamplemousse, a roan son of Kafwain, provided a flicker of hope for his sire in 2009 when he won the Sham (GIII) and San Rafael Stakes (GIII) with ease, but he was injured prior to the Santa Anita Derby where he was a morning line favorite and never raced again.  The Pamplemousse entered stud in 2011 at Rancho San Miguel in California for $3,500 stud fee.  Similar to Kafwain, Yonaguska’s best son, Musket Man made a splash on the Triple Crown Trail only after his sire was sent to Louisiana for the 2009 breeding season.  In 2009, Musket Man won the Illinois Derby (GII) and Tampa Bay Derby (GIII) and hit the board in both the Kentucky Derby (GI) and Preakness Stakes (GI). However, Musket Man’s success was not enough to keep Yonaguska in America as he was sold to the Jockey Club of Turkey in early 2010.  Having only finished out of the money twice in sixteen lifetime starts with twelve of those starts coming in graded stakes, Musket Man was retired to Vinery in Florida in 2010.  Emulating his sire, Musket Man was then moved from Florida to Elite Thoroughbreds in Louisiana for the 2011 breeding season.

            As for Chelokee, Zanjero, and War Pass, their 2007 success on the track did not repeat itself in 2008 due to a mix of injuries, increased distances, and tougher competition.  Champion War Pass began his three year campaign with a victory in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park only to finish last in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby.  War Pass recovered to finish second in the Wood Memorial (GI) to Tale of Ekati after setting brutal early fractions of 22.46 for the first quarter mile and 46.07 for the first half mile.  After the Wood Memorial, War Pass was declared out of the Kentucky Derby due to a fractured foreleg.  He was unable to return to racing and retired to stud at Lane’s End Farm for the 2009 breeding season at an advertised stud fee of $30,000.  However, bad luck would strike again as War Pass died in his paddock after returning to Kentucky from Australia in December 2010.  War Pass was only six years old when he died, and in his two years at stud, War Pass covered 90 mares with 61 live foals reported to the Jockey Club in 2010 and 83 mares with 61 live foals reported to the Jockey Club in 2011.  His first crop will race later this year, and hopefully his offspring will inherit his ability and talent and not his bad luck. 

            As for Chelokee, he started his year with a victory in an allowance/optional claiming race at Gulfstream, but then broke down running in the Alysheba Stakes at Churchill Downs in May of 2008.  Chelokee survived his injury and stood the 2009 season at Vinery in Kentucky for an advertised fee of $7,500; however, Chelokee only covered 24 mares in 2009 and only 12 of those mares produced live foals in 2010 according to the Jockey Club.  In 2010, Chelokee’s owner, Centennial Farms, donated him to the University of Arizona Equine Center.  In Arizona, Chelokee covered 19 mares which produced 16 live foals reported to the Jockey Club in 2011.  Zanjero completed the 2008 racing year in good health, but was unable to build on his three year old success.  As a four year old, Zanjero won the Kentucky Cup Classic (GII) and the ungraded West Virginia Governor’s Stakes; finished second in the Lone Star Park Handicap (GIII) and the Texas Mile (GIII); and finished fourth in the Cornhusker Handicap (GII).  Zanjero entered stud at Millennium Farms in Kentucky in 2009 with an advertised stud fee of $10,000.  Zanjero covered 107 mares in 2010 and 67 mares in 2011.  He enters the 2012 breeding season as the only son of Cherokee Run at stud in Kentucky with a listed stud fee of $7,500. 

            Because of the disappearance of Cherokee Run and his sons from Central Kentucky, there is one less sire line available for outcrosses.  This decline occurred while the number of tail-male Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, and A.P. Indy stallions has continued to increase.  Some stallions now entering stud already have one or more crosses of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer within their pedigrees.  While this may seem a worrisome trend, Cherokee Run and his sons show just how quickly a trend or budding sire line can vanish in a few years despite the fact that it can take years to determine whether or not a stallion is a success or failure. So maybe today’s tidal waves of inbreeding are just tomorrow’s bloodstock back waters.  After all, five years ago who could have predicted that Candy Stripes, another Blushing Groom line stallion, would be the grand-sire of a Kentucky Derby winner through a Brazilian bred turf miler?  But Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby in his first start on dirt, and it is that unpredictability that makes breeding so interesting and so unpredictable.  

What's Next for Three Chimneys Part II -- Is Big Brown Smarty Jones 2.0?

Big Brown, Lewis Michael, and Red Giant all entered stud at the same time, but based on breeder popularity, it appears that only Big Brown has a realistic chance for the farm to replace the prestige and prominence of Dynaformer. 

Stallion Name	2011	2010	2009
Big Brown	114	98	104
Lewis Michael	38	40	46
Red Giant	44	42	38

            As demand for Lewis Michael dropped, so did his stud fee which was $3,000 for 2012.  Similarly, Red Giant has been bred to a steady but relatively small book of mares over the past three years.  His stud fee remained at $6,000 for the 2012 season.  Given that the fourth year of a stallion’s career is often the toughest, it seems unlikely that 2012 was a banner year for either stallion and both will struggle to succeed unless they have already sired a “big horse” that will lure breeders back. 

            In contrast, demand for Big Brown, a grandson of Danzig, has been relatively constant over the past three years with the number of mares bred increasing in 2011 when his listed stud fee dropped from $60,000 to $40,000.  For 2012, the listed stud fee was $35,000 and he likely attracted similar interest to 2011.  While the performance of his first few crops will determine whether or not Big Brown can replace Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion, there are still some potential hurdles that he still must overcome. 

            Given the production record of War Front, a son of Danzig, and the strong turf influences present in the pedigree of Big Brown’s dam (the product of a Nureyev and Lear Fan mare mating), it would not surprise me if Big Brown’s offspring excelled on turf.  His connections often said that Big Brown was superior on turf.  If Big Brown’s offspring cannot have occasional success on dirt, like The Factor for War Front, it could be hard for Big Brown to escape being labeled as a “turf sire.” This can be the kiss of death in American breeding.  Also, the lack of success of Big Brown’s half-siblings as race horses raises questions about his ability to pass on his talent to his offspring.  In this sense, the stallion career of Big Brown could resemble former Three Chimneys stallion Smarty Jones. 

            Smarty Jones was a very talented race horse from a relatively weak female family.  At stud, Smarty Jones failed to sire offspring as talented as him and has been moved to Pennsylvania.  Oddly enough the dams of both Big Brown and Smarty Jones were bred to Henrythenavigator in 2009 and those two colts were sold at the 2011 Keeneland September sale.  The catalog pages for both colts show little success at the racetrack for offspring of either dam aside from a classic winning son.  This lack of success was despite the fact that they were bred to better stallions following their sons’ success.  The similarities between both stallions continue as closely related siblings also failed to distinguish themselves on the track.  As for I’ll Get Along, she had Elusive Moment, a full sister to Smarty Jones in 2005.  Elusive Moment failed to win in North America, was exported to Argentina where she won, and was then returned to North America to be a broodmare.  She sold in the 2011 Keeneland November sale in foal to City Zip having only won $18,532 while racing.  As for Mien, Chow Mien was born in 2008 and is a sibling to Big Brown but by Belong to Me instead of by Boundary.  Thus, Danzig is the grandsire of both horses.  According to the 2011 catalog page of Mien’s colt by Henrythenavigator, Chow Mien only won $36,928 as a race horse. 

            While being a full sibling to a gifted horse is no guarantee of success in stakes competition (see Barbaro and his full brothers), it is reassuring to see continued success of a stallion’s siblings while you wait for his offspring to hit the track.  Given these questions about Big Brown, the relative lack of activity with their other stallions, and the apparent quality of this year’s three year old crop, it would not surprise me to see Three Chimneys acquire a new stallion for the 2013 breeding season.  While I’ll Have Another seems like an obvious choice, that could cannibalize breeder demand for his sire Flower Alley.  His low sales price as a yearling and two year old also indicates that he may not sire offspring that would be commercially appealing.  I think Union Rags who comes from a strong female family might be a safer, but still high profile choice to join the stallion roster at Three Chimneys.   

Whiffing on the Derby or "I Almost Had It!"

            In terms of its winners becoming sires or the best horse always winning the race, the Kentucky Derby is not as relevant or as formful as the Breeder’s Cup Classic, but the combination of the 20 horse field and the mile and a quarter distance make it a unique betting opportunity.  This is a post about some “near mises” or “near hits” and paralysis by analysis.  I hope you share your stories in the comments and wish you the best of luck as you go through your tickets while waiting for NBC to show the payoffs. 

            One of the best Kentucky Derby betting stories comes from a friend’s grandmother – in 2004, she bet a $1 superfecta ticket based on some combination of an anniversary, a birthday, number of children, and number of grandchildren at the urging of her children.  After she cashed her ticket in for $20,690.10, she said “this is fun – when can we do this again?”  That is a great story and one we should all remember as we review past performances and prepare spreadsheets – in a 20 horse field there is no controlling for dumb luck.

            In chronological order, my recent Derby “near hits” read as follows:  in 2005, I was the conductor of the Afleet Alex train – I had bet on him in the future pools and used his loss in the Rebel due to illness to bet more in the future pools at a better price.  So when Afleet Alex began to wobble in deep stretch, moved toward the rail, and was caught by Giacomo and Closing Argument, I was sick.  I am still trying to decide if I should feel vindicated or upset that Afleet Alex went on to sweep the Preakness and Belmont with ease.

            In 2006, I knew Barbaro was the best horse; I knew it.  I just could not figure out how to use that knowledge.  2005 proved that the best horse does not always win, and I also thought Bob and John and Cause to Believe had a shot.  Because I would be placing my bets over an hour before the Derby, I did not believe that Barbaro would go off above 5:1.  I figure he would be 5/2 or 2:1 by post time, and no one wants that in a 20 horse field.  I remember coming up with the following strategy – Barbaro over “longshots that at least have the pedigree to run 1.25 miles.”  I then jotted down Barbaro’s 8 over the numbers of horses like Bluegrass Cat, Cause to Believe, and AP Warrior.  It was a three or four dollar exacta wheel, but I failed to make the bet!  Accordingly, I missed out on the $293.50 exacta, but I was able to show everyone at the Derby Party where I wrote the exacta down. 

            A friend at the party had a worse story – when NBC finally posted the payoffs, he learned two things:  that there was a dead heat for 4^th and that one of the random, straight superfecta bets he made had missed a $42,860.40 payday by switching the 3^rd and 4^th place horses.  Thus, the actual running order of 8-13-2-1 was 8-13-1-2 on his ticket.  As someone else said recently, “I think he kept that ticket in his wallet for a long time.” 

            In 2007, I was confident that the best horse could win the Derby, and I was on Team Street Sense.  Again, I was too dumb to just bet him to win.  I decided to bet different three horse exacta box bets with Street Sense and my second choice horse always being in the bet and the third horse being different in each bet.  That way when Street Sense won I win multiple times if my second choice ran second, and if a longshot ran second to Street Sense I would cash an exacta at a price.  Initially, Hard Spun was my second horse.  Then, despite betting him in the future pool, I dropped Hard Spun as the other constant in my three horse exacta box bets.  I think I replaced him with Circular Quay – ouch.  So instead of having a $50.90 exacta four or five times, I had it once, and I still did not bet on Street Sense to win.

            In 2008, I tossed Big Brown – I did not like Post 20, I did not like Dutrow, and I did not like losing all of my bets after the race was over.  I figured you either had to use him as the superior horse, or not and you know what I did. 

            In 2009, the Derby changed course again as three years of the best horse winning ended with Mine That Bird rolling through the stretch to victory.  While competitive in subsequent races, Mine That Bird never won again.  Lessons learned?  Remember the Calvin factor, which I promptly forgot in 2010 with Super Saver, and when the Churchill track gets wet, it develops strange biases. 

            So dear reader what are your “near misses” or “near hits” on the Derby? 

Sic Transit Gloria Mundi or What's Next for Three Chimneys After Dynaformer's Retirement?

     The Latin phrase “Sic Transit Gloria Mundi” is often translated as Thus Passes the Glory of the World.  It was chanted during papal coronations to remind the newly installed Pope that worldly things are fleeting.  I thought of this phrase when I heard about the retirement of Dynaformer – he was 27 years old and seemed like he would be a stallion forever, but time is relentless.  The retirement of Dynaformer poses two significant questions for domestic breeding in Central Kentucky – who can replace Dynaformer as a source of stamina and turf aptitude, and can any stallion at Three Chimneys succeed Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion with a six figure stud fee?

     This post looks at this second question.  Despite domestic aversion to stamina or turf horses, Dynaformer was able to command a six figure stud fee for multiple years because of (i) a limited book of mares and (ii) demand for his progeny both here and abroad.  Dynaformer’s success obscured the fact that, despite being one of Kentucky’s best known stud farms, the stallions of Three Chimneys have lagged their competition in commercial popularity and on track success in recent years.  Farms like Darley, Lane’s End, Gainesway, and Claiborne have spent the past few years boosting the popularity and stud fees of their own stallions by purchasing and standing successful sons of their premier stallions and reaping the benefits of commercial successes like Bernardini, Smart Strike, Tapit, and War Front, respectively.  Over the same period of time, Three Chimneys retired stalwarts Rahy and Dynaformer and saw Smarty Jones fail in dramatic fashion with his stud fee plummeting from $100,000 in 2005 to $10,000 or less in his last season in Kentucky.  Without Dynaformer and without the exiled Smarty Jones, the farm is standing nine stallions in 2012, which can be split into a group of unproven stallions and a group of older stallions whose popularity with breeders is either stable or declining.   

EXISTING STALLIONS

     Declining demand from breeders begins a vicious circle for a stallion that makes it increasingly difficult for the horse to stay in Kentucky, for the syndicate to raise the stud fee or sell seasons privately at a premium, and for a “big horse” to come from dwindling foal crops.  As for the established stallions of Three Chimneys, the demand for Exchange Rate, Flower Alley, Point Given, and War Chant appears to have stabilized or declined over the past three years based on the chart below from the Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred for 2009 to 2011.  Thus, this vicious circle has already started for these stallions. 

Mares Bred To	2011	2010	2009
Exchange Rate	76	117	118
Flower Alley	79	99	66
Point Given	32	32	50
War Chant	48	67	65

     Despite the significant decline in demand for Exchange Rate, his stud fee remained at its 2011 level of $25,000, and a 75 mare book seems likely for 2012.  As for Flower Alley, the success of Kentucky Derby hopeful I’ll Have Another and a 2012 fee reduction to $7,500 from $10,000 may increase his popularity in 2012, but his stud fee faces a long climb back to $25,000 and beyond.  As for Point Given, the farm curiously increased his 2012 stud fee to $20,000 from $7,500 off a 32 mare season, but given that jump, it seems unlikely that Point Given’s 2012 book will move beyond 30 to 50 mares.  Finally, War Chant’s stud fee was lowered to $10,000 from $12,500 for 2012, but it is unclear if this reduction will restore breeder demand which dropped dramatically from 2010 to 2011.   

     As the chart below shows, Sky Mesa and Yes It’s True have been consistently popular with breeders and they have produced quality race horses over time.

Mares Bred To	2011	2010	2009
Sky Mesa	149	127	114
Yes It's True	121	120	100

However, the dark cloud on the horizon is that Sky Mesa’s first crop raced in 2007 and Yes It’s True’s first crop raced in 2004, and since that time neither stallion has had enough success either in the auction ring, or on the racetrack to make either stallion internationally relevant, or to propel their stud fees to six figures.  In today’s economic climate that kind of jump seems impossible, but Tapit’s stud fee in 2008 was only $12,500 and War Front’s stud fee in 2011 was only $15,000.  In 2012, Tapit’s advertised stud fee is $125,000 and War Front’s advertised fee is $60,000.  At this time, there does not seem to be a catalyst for dramatic increase in stud fees for Sky Mesa or Yes It’s True in 2013. 

     Thus, based on their current stud fees, the stable or declining demand of breeders, and the size of the foal crops that will be racing soon, it seems unlikely that any of the above stallions will succeed Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion.  The next post will look at the stallions at Three Chimneys whose progeny have not raced yet to see if any of them have the potential to replace Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion. 

Update on Golden Frontier

   A brief update on Golden Frontier.  He worked five furlongs at Keeneland on Sunday in 59 seconds flat.  Based on that work, he is entered in an allowance race on Sunday April 22nd in Keeneland's 4th race.  This will be his first race against winners, and he will be in the gate next to one of my favorite names -- Mr. Fuzzybottom.  Fuzzybottom is wheeling back after wiring a starter allowance race at Keeneland on April 11th.  If Golden can avoid a speed duel with Mr. Fuzzybottom in the first quarter, then he should be there at the end.  I just hope the track is playing favorable to speed on Sunday.
    If you will be out at Keeneland on Sunday please let me know via a comment or on twitter.  I would be happy to meet anyone out there. 

 

Golden in the Keeneland paddock before his work on Sunday. 

Breaking a Maiden

 
   A horse won a race.  That is about as basic as it gets.  Look a little closer and you see that he broke his maiden in his second start in a six furlong sprint at Oaklawn Park.  Look even closer and you notice that he won by six lengths, that the second place horse cost $340,000 as a yearling, and that he posted one of the quickest six furlong time at Oaklawn this meet.  After the race you see that his performance was given a 96 Beyer Speed Figure and a 100 BRIS Speed Figure.  After analyzing all of this information, you might conclude that this is a serious race horse (and you would be right).  You might also assume that he was purchased as a yearling based on his looks or pedigree or that he dazzled buyers with his workout at a two year old in training sale.  Here, you are wrong– the winner’s name is Golden Frontier and my friend is the owner.  He was sired by Canadian Frontier who has since been sent to Louisiana, he was Hip Number 5184 of 5709 in the 2008 Keeneland November sale, he was the second foal out of his dam, and was purchased for $1,300 as a weanling to keep another weanling company.
     Since he was one-half of my friend’s two horse stable, I watched Golden Frontier’s win with the owner and am excited about his future as a race horse.  However, looking at Golden Frontier’s pedigree and sales history and the pedigree and sales history of some other horses in his race provides an interesting window into the sport.  Spin Zone, the post time favorite and distant second place finisher, was purchased by Rick Porter of Fox Hill Farm as a yearling for $340,000.  Spin Zone is by popular stallion Candy Ride (Arg) out of Harve de Grace.  Thus, Spin Zone is a half brother to stakes winner and current stallion Concord Point.  However, Spin Zone’s pedigree and connections pale in comparison to the 6^th place finisher, Turnofthecat.  

     Turnofthecat is by Storm Cat out of Turko’s Turn, which makes him a half brother to classic winner Point Given.  Turnofthecat did not reach his reserve as a yearling at the 2009 Keeneland September sale at $475,000, and despite failing to break his maiden in three starts as a three year old, Turnofthecat sold for $140,000 at the 2012 Keeneland January sale.  This stellar pedigree and the training experience of multiple Triple Crown winner, D. Wayne Lukas did not make up the 19 lengths between Turnofthecat in 6^th and Golden Frontier in 1^st. 

     It also proves that no matter how much black type is in the pedigree, how expensive the sale price, and how experienced the agent and trainer are that a good horse can come from anywhere.  This fundamental principle is what racing should continue to emphasize today because it is true today as it was in the 19^th century.  Despite the bad press, breakdowns, and everything else, horse racing rests on two fundamental principles – the outcome of a race determines the best horse and despite the vast sums of money spent on breeding, training, and predicting, a good horse can come from anywhere and be owned by anybody.  As for Golden, he has become quite popular since his eye catching win at Oaklawn and several bloodstock agents have been by to make substantial offers on a horse they could have bought a few years ago for $2,000.

Golden Frontier in his stall at Keeneland.