The Latin phrase “Sic Transit
Gloria Mundi” is often translated as Thus Passes the Glory of the World. It was chanted during papal coronations to
remind the newly installed Pope that worldly things are fleeting. I thought of this phrase when I heard about
the retirement of Dynaformer – he was 27 years old and seemed like he would be
a stallion forever, but time is relentless.
The retirement of Dynaformer poses two significant questions for
domestic breeding in Central Kentucky – who
can replace Dynaformer as a source of stamina and turf aptitude, and can any
stallion at Three Chimneys succeed Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion with a six
figure stud fee?
This post looks at this second question. Despite domestic aversion to stamina or turf horses, Dynaformer was able to command a six figure stud fee for multiple years because of (i) a limited book of mares and (ii) demand for his progeny both here and abroad. Dynaformer’s success obscured the fact that, despite being one of Kentucky’s best known stud farms, the stallions of Three Chimneys have lagged their competition in commercial popularity and on track success in recent years. Farms like Darley, Lane’s End, Gainesway, and Claiborne have spent the past few years boosting the popularity and stud fees of their own stallions by purchasing and standing successful sons of their premier stallions and reaping the benefits of commercial successes like Bernardini, Smart Strike, Tapit, and War Front, respectively. Over the same period of time, Three Chimneys retired stalwarts Rahy and Dynaformer and saw Smarty Jones fail in dramatic fashion with his stud fee plummeting from $100,000 in 2005 to $10,000 or less in his last season in Kentucky. Without Dynaformer and without the exiled Smarty Jones, the farm is standing nine stallions in 2012, which can be split into a group of unproven stallions and a group of older stallions whose popularity with breeders is either stable or declining.
EXISTING STALLIONS
Declining
demand from breeders begins a vicious circle for a stallion that makes it increasingly
difficult for the horse to stay in Kentucky,
for the syndicate to raise the stud fee or sell seasons privately at a premium,
and for a “big horse” to come from dwindling foal crops. As for the established stallions of Three
Chimneys, the demand for Exchange Rate, Flower Alley, Point Given, and War
Chant appears to have stabilized or declined over the past three years based on
the chart below from the Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred for 2009 to
2011. Thus, this vicious circle has
already started for these stallions.
Mares Bred To
|
2011
|
2010
|
2009
|
Exchange Rate
|
76
|
117
|
118
|
Flower Alley
|
79
|
99
|
66
|
Point Given
|
32
|
32
|
50
|
War Chant
|
48
|
67
|
65
|
Despite
the significant decline in demand for Exchange Rate, his stud fee remained at
its 2011 level of $25,000, and a 75 mare book seems likely for 2012. As for Flower Alley, the success of Kentucky
Derby hopeful I’ll Have Another and a 2012 fee reduction to $7,500 from $10,000
may increase his popularity in 2012, but his stud fee faces a long climb back
to $25,000 and beyond. As for Point
Given, the farm curiously increased his 2012 stud fee to $20,000 from
$7,500 off a 32 mare season, but given that jump, it seems unlikely that Point
Given’s 2012 book will move beyond 30 to 50 mares. Finally, War Chant’s stud fee was lowered to
$10,000 from $12,500 for 2012, but it is unclear if this reduction will restore
breeder demand which dropped dramatically from 2010 to 2011.
As the chart below shows, Sky Mesa and Yes It’s True have been consistently popular with breeders and they have produced quality race horses over time.
Mares Bred To
|
2011
|
2010
|
2009
|
Sky Mesa
|
149
|
127
|
114
|
Yes It's True
|
121
|
120
|
100
|
However, the dark cloud on the horizon is that Sky Mesa’s
first crop raced in 2007 and Yes It’s True’s first crop raced in 2004, and since that time neither
stallion has had enough success either in the auction ring, or on the racetrack to make either stallion internationally relevant, or to propel their stud fees to six figures. In today’s economic climate that
kind of jump seems impossible, but Tapit’s stud fee in 2008 was only $12,500
and War Front’s stud fee in 2011 was only $15,000. In 2012, Tapit’s advertised stud fee is
$125,000 and War Front’s advertised fee is $60,000. At this time, there does not seem to be a
catalyst for dramatic increase in stud fees for Sky Mesa or Yes It’s True in
2013.
Thus, based on their current stud fees, the stable or declining demand of breeders, and the size of the foal crops that will be racing soon, it seems unlikely that any of the above stallions will succeed Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion. The next post will look at the stallions at Three Chimneys whose progeny have not raced yet to see if any of them have the potential to replace Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion.
