What's Next for Three Chimneys Part II -- Is Big Brown Smarty Jones 2.0?

Big Brown, Lewis Michael, and Red Giant all entered stud at the same time, but based on breeder popularity, it appears that only Big Brown has a realistic chance for the farm to replace the prestige and prominence of Dynaformer. 

Stallion Name	2011	2010	2009
Big Brown	114	98	104
Lewis Michael	38	40	46
Red Giant	44	42	38

            As demand for Lewis Michael dropped, so did his stud fee which was $3,000 for 2012.  Similarly, Red Giant has been bred to a steady but relatively small book of mares over the past three years.  His stud fee remained at $6,000 for the 2012 season.  Given that the fourth year of a stallion’s career is often the toughest, it seems unlikely that 2012 was a banner year for either stallion and both will struggle to succeed unless they have already sired a “big horse” that will lure breeders back. 

            In contrast, demand for Big Brown, a grandson of Danzig, has been relatively constant over the past three years with the number of mares bred increasing in 2011 when his listed stud fee dropped from $60,000 to $40,000.  For 2012, the listed stud fee was $35,000 and he likely attracted similar interest to 2011.  While the performance of his first few crops will determine whether or not Big Brown can replace Dynaformer as a preeminent stallion, there are still some potential hurdles that he still must overcome. 

            Given the production record of War Front, a son of Danzig, and the strong turf influences present in the pedigree of Big Brown’s dam (the product of a Nureyev and Lear Fan mare mating), it would not surprise me if Big Brown’s offspring excelled on turf.  His connections often said that Big Brown was superior on turf.  If Big Brown’s offspring cannot have occasional success on dirt, like The Factor for War Front, it could be hard for Big Brown to escape being labeled as a “turf sire.” This can be the kiss of death in American breeding.  Also, the lack of success of Big Brown’s half-siblings as race horses raises questions about his ability to pass on his talent to his offspring.  In this sense, the stallion career of Big Brown could resemble former Three Chimneys stallion Smarty Jones. 

            Smarty Jones was a very talented race horse from a relatively weak female family.  At stud, Smarty Jones failed to sire offspring as talented as him and has been moved to Pennsylvania.  Oddly enough the dams of both Big Brown and Smarty Jones were bred to Henrythenavigator in 2009 and those two colts were sold at the 2011 Keeneland September sale.  The catalog pages for both colts show little success at the racetrack for offspring of either dam aside from a classic winning son.  This lack of success was despite the fact that they were bred to better stallions following their sons’ success.  The similarities between both stallions continue as closely related siblings also failed to distinguish themselves on the track.  As for I’ll Get Along, she had Elusive Moment, a full sister to Smarty Jones in 2005.  Elusive Moment failed to win in North America, was exported to Argentina where she won, and was then returned to North America to be a broodmare.  She sold in the 2011 Keeneland November sale in foal to City Zip having only won $18,532 while racing.  As for Mien, Chow Mien was born in 2008 and is a sibling to Big Brown but by Belong to Me instead of by Boundary.  Thus, Danzig is the grandsire of both horses.  According to the 2011 catalog page of Mien’s colt by Henrythenavigator, Chow Mien only won $36,928 as a race horse. 

            While being a full sibling to a gifted horse is no guarantee of success in stakes competition (see Barbaro and his full brothers), it is reassuring to see continued success of a stallion’s siblings while you wait for his offspring to hit the track.  Given these questions about Big Brown, the relative lack of activity with their other stallions, and the apparent quality of this year’s three year old crop, it would not surprise me to see Three Chimneys acquire a new stallion for the 2013 breeding season.  While I’ll Have Another seems like an obvious choice, that could cannibalize breeder demand for his sire Flower Alley.  His low sales price as a yearling and two year old also indicates that he may not sire offspring that would be commercially appealing.  I think Union Rags who comes from a strong female family might be a safer, but still high profile choice to join the stallion roster at Three Chimneys.