Why Pull Up Polytrack? A Look at Recent Winners of The Bluegrass Stakes

 

     When Keeneland announced it was pulling up its Polytrack and returning to dirt, many questioned the decision noting that the full fields the meet attracted and that the synthetic surface caused fewer catastrophic breakdowns.  While Keeneland’s desire to host the Breeders’ Cup seems to be the primary motivation to return to dirt, the status of the Spring Meet’s premier race, the Bluegrass Stakes as a legitimate Kentucky Derby prep had to factor into that decision. 

While the “Stonecutters”[1] at Churchill Downs elected to treat the Bluegrass Stakes as equally worthy of qualifying points as the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, and Florida Derby, there is a perception that the quality of the winners and field of the Bluegrass Stakes has suffered since the conversion to Polytrack.  As a result, many apparently conclude that the winner of the Bluegrass Stakes is an instant “toss” when entered in the Kentucky Derby either because their synthetic form is unlikely to transfer to dirt, or because the race surface is fluky.  (Whether or not this belief existed and had validity back when Keeneland’s quirky, speed favoring dirt track was in place is another question.)  The expressed willingness of the connections of the 2014 winner of the Bluegrass Stakes to skip the Kentucky Derby only serves to further the belief that synthetic winners represent some different type of horse whose form does not always carry over to dirt or turf.

To try to determine whether there was any data to support these beliefs and perceptions, I took examined the post-Bluegrass racing careers of the seven winners of the Bluegrass on Polytrack (2007 to 2012) with the post-Bluegrass racing careers of the last eight winners of the Bluegrass when Keeneland had a dirt track. 

First the Polytrack winners

Year Won	Name of Bluegrass Winner	Post BG Stakes Wins	Post BG Stakes Places	Post BG Stakes Shows	Number of Starts Post-BG
2013	Java's War	0	0	0	3
2012	Dullahan	1	0	2	10
2011	Brilliant Speed	1	1	5	13
2010	Stately Victor	0	0	6	18
2009	General Quarters	1	3	1	16
2008	Monba	0	0	2	5
2007	Dominican	0	2	2	15
				Total Starts	80

While Java’s War is still racing, it is interesting to note that these horses only won 3 graded stakes in their combined 80 starts after winning the Bluegrass.  Not surprisingly, these three wins were on synthetic (Dullahan’s Pacific Classic win) or on turf (Brilliant Speed’s victory in the Sarnac (G3) and General Quarters win in Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1)).  Also only two of these horses finished in the money in any Triple Crown race (Dullahan’s third in the Kentucky Derby and Brilliant Speed’s third in the Belmont). While running in the Kentucky Derby may have impaired or harmed the post-Bluegrass career of horses like Monba and Java’s War, the rest all made more than 10 starts after winning a Grade 1 race!  In this day and age that many starts with that few wins certainly suggests that the commercial market placed a low value on a victory in a synthetic Bluegrass Stake.  The lack of wins provides some evidence for the notion that results on Polytrack are somewhat fluky as these horses rarely won subsequent graded stakes on synthetic surfaces at Grade 2 and Grade 3 levels. 

 

Now for the last 8 winners on the “old” dirt track

Year Won	Name of Bluegrass Winner	Post BG Stakes Wins	Post BG Stakes Places	Post BG Stakes Shows	Number of Starts Post-BG
2006	Sinister Minister	0	0	0	8
2005	Bandini	1	0	0	4
2004	The Cliff's Edge	0	3	1	5
2003	Peace Rules	4	1	1	11
2002	Harlan's Holiday	2	2	1	12
2001	Millennium Wind	0	0	0	2
2000	High Yield	0	0	0	2
1999	Menifee	1	3	1	6
				Total Starts	50

                 

            While the racing career of these eight horses is over, they arguably compiled a more impressive and consistent race record following their Bluegrass Stakes victory than their seven Polytrack counterparts.  From only 50 starts, these horses won 8 graded stakes with Peace Rules winning four Grade 1 races, Menifee winning the Haskell (G1), Harlan’s Holiday winning the Donn (G1) and the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), and Bandini winning the Skip Away.  Also, The Cliff’s Edge and Menifee finished second in multiple Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness for Menifee and the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup for The Cliff’s Edge.  Despite this success, it is odd to note that only two of these eight horses (Peace Rules and Menifee) finished in the money in any Triple Crown race.  This coupled with the subsequent racing success of several of these horses certainly lends credence that success in Triple Crown races is a function of luck as much as ability.  Also, all of these horses except Sinister Minister and Peace Rules started their stallion career in Kentucky which certainly suggests that commercial breeders valued these horses based, in part, on their victory in the Bluegrass Stakes.  While the commercial market was certainly tougher during the Polytrack era, few of those winners have been of interest to breeders with only Brilliant Speed currently at stud in Kentucky although Dullahan certainly a candidate for commercial success had he survived.  Thus, it appears from this data that the dirt winners of the Bluegrass Stakes were more valuable as stallion prospects based, in part on their victory in the Bluegrass Stakes, and were more consistent, successful horses in their subsequent graded stakes starts. 

            While I have enjoyed the Polytrack era at Keeneland, reviewing this data has led me to the conclusion that a return to dirt is a positive.  If you believe as I do that Grade 1 races should be a proving ground for the horses to determine the superior athlete, then the performances of those winners going forward becomes important.  If the Polytrack surface led to fluky Bluegrass Stakes winners or to horses ill-suited to competing in the Kentucky Derby having a “free pass” to the entry gate, then Keeneland’s Polytrack was hurting its premier race by diminishing the value of winning that race for owners, breeders, and horses.  Now they just need to avoid making the new dirt track a conveyor belt to create the same problem. 

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[1] Obligatory Simpsons reference.

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