Whiffing on the Derby or "I Almost Had It!"

            In terms of its winners becoming sires or the best horse always winning the race, the Kentucky Derby is not as relevant or as formful as the Breeder’s Cup Classic, but the combination of the 20 horse field and the mile and a quarter distance make it a unique betting opportunity.  This is a post about some “near mises” or “near hits” and paralysis by analysis.  I hope you share your stories in the comments and wish you the best of luck as you go through your tickets while waiting for NBC to show the payoffs. 

            One of the best Kentucky Derby betting stories comes from a friend’s grandmother – in 2004, she bet a $1 superfecta ticket based on some combination of an anniversary, a birthday, number of children, and number of grandchildren at the urging of her children.  After she cashed her ticket in for $20,690.10, she said “this is fun – when can we do this again?”  That is a great story and one we should all remember as we review past performances and prepare spreadsheets – in a 20 horse field there is no controlling for dumb luck.

            In chronological order, my recent Derby “near hits” read as follows:  in 2005, I was the conductor of the Afleet Alex train – I had bet on him in the future pools and used his loss in the Rebel due to illness to bet more in the future pools at a better price.  So when Afleet Alex began to wobble in deep stretch, moved toward the rail, and was caught by Giacomo and Closing Argument, I was sick.  I am still trying to decide if I should feel vindicated or upset that Afleet Alex went on to sweep the Preakness and Belmont with ease.

            In 2006, I knew Barbaro was the best horse; I knew it.  I just could not figure out how to use that knowledge.  2005 proved that the best horse does not always win, and I also thought Bob and John and Cause to Believe had a shot.  Because I would be placing my bets over an hour before the Derby, I did not believe that Barbaro would go off above 5:1.  I figure he would be 5/2 or 2:1 by post time, and no one wants that in a 20 horse field.  I remember coming up with the following strategy – Barbaro over “longshots that at least have the pedigree to run 1.25 miles.”  I then jotted down Barbaro’s 8 over the numbers of horses like Bluegrass Cat, Cause to Believe, and AP Warrior.  It was a three or four dollar exacta wheel, but I failed to make the bet!  Accordingly, I missed out on the $293.50 exacta, but I was able to show everyone at the Derby Party where I wrote the exacta down. 

            A friend at the party had a worse story – when NBC finally posted the payoffs, he learned two things:  that there was a dead heat for 4^th and that one of the random, straight superfecta bets he made had missed a $42,860.40 payday by switching the 3^rd and 4^th place horses.  Thus, the actual running order of 8-13-2-1 was 8-13-1-2 on his ticket.  As someone else said recently, “I think he kept that ticket in his wallet for a long time.” 

            In 2007, I was confident that the best horse could win the Derby, and I was on Team Street Sense.  Again, I was too dumb to just bet him to win.  I decided to bet different three horse exacta box bets with Street Sense and my second choice horse always being in the bet and the third horse being different in each bet.  That way when Street Sense won I win multiple times if my second choice ran second, and if a longshot ran second to Street Sense I would cash an exacta at a price.  Initially, Hard Spun was my second horse.  Then, despite betting him in the future pool, I dropped Hard Spun as the other constant in my three horse exacta box bets.  I think I replaced him with Circular Quay – ouch.  So instead of having a $50.90 exacta four or five times, I had it once, and I still did not bet on Street Sense to win.

            In 2008, I tossed Big Brown – I did not like Post 20, I did not like Dutrow, and I did not like losing all of my bets after the race was over.  I figured you either had to use him as the superior horse, or not and you know what I did. 

            In 2009, the Derby changed course again as three years of the best horse winning ended with Mine That Bird rolling through the stretch to victory.  While competitive in subsequent races, Mine That Bird never won again.  Lessons learned?  Remember the Calvin factor, which I promptly forgot in 2010 with Super Saver, and when the Churchill track gets wet, it develops strange biases. 

            So dear reader what are your “near misses” or “near hits” on the Derby?