With the almost mass retirement of this year's three year old crop (Bodemeister, Hansen, Union Rags, and Creative Cause) and the impending retirement of older horses like Stay Thirsty, Tapizar, and Brilliant Speed, I wondered how many stallions would be leaving the bluegrass of Kentucky (or retired) to make room for the new arrivals. But, the larger question behind stallions relocations is why? Why did these stallions move -- lack of commercial success, lack of progeny success, or victims of international exchange rates? For owners and investors in stallions of 2013 they should wonder how many mares did these stallions serve that might be sent to my stallion?
Below is a chart I compiled based on public announcements about stallion departures showing the stallion, the sire line, the Kentucky stud farm, the destination, and the number of mares bred in 2012 according to the Jockey Club.
| Stallion | Sire Line | Stud Farm Left | Destination | 12 Mares Bred |
| Bob and John | Seeking the Gold (Mr. Prospector) | Pin Oak | New York | 20 |
| Courageous Cat | Storm Cat (Northern Dancer) | Lane's End | New York | 46 |
| Desert Party | Machiavellian (Mr. Prospector) | Darley | New York | 67 |
| El Corredor | Gone West (Mr. Prospector) | Hill N Dale | New York | 19 |
| Grand Slam | Gone West (Mr. Prospector) | Ashford | Death | 31 |
| Henny Hughes | Hennessey (Northern Dancer) | Darley | Australia | 22 |
| Henrythenavigator | Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector) | Ashford | Ireland | 115 |
| Holy Bull | Great Above | Darley | Pensioned | 17 |
| Kipling | Gulch (Mr. Prospector) | Crestwood | Oklahoma | 23 |
| Latent Heat | Maria's Mon (Wavering Monarch) | Woods Edge Farm | Oklahoma | 36 |
| Rock Hard Ten | Kris S (Roberto) | Lane's End | Korea | 41 |
| Rockport Harbor | Unbridled's Song (Mr. Prospector) | Darley | Pennslyvania | 28 |
| Street Sense | Machiavellian (Mr. Prospector) | Darley | Japan | 114 |
| Summer Bird | Unbridled (Mr. Prospector) | Winstar | Japan | 141 |
| Sun King | Summer Squall (Northern Dancer) | Darby Dan | Louisiana | 31 |
| Will He Shine | Deputy Minister (Northern Dancer) | Millenium | Saudi Arabia | 6 |
The most obvious conclusions from the chart are that New York remains a siren lure for stallions and that a Kentucky stallion must breed to roughly 40 mares to remain in Kentucky. Aside from Desert Party at 67 mares you have a wide gap from stallions at or around 40 mares to those three stallions who were bred to more than 100 mares in 2012. Those three stallions, Summer Bird, Street Sense, and Henrythenavigator, were seemingly relocated due to the international nature of thoroughbred breeding rather than a lack of demand in Kentucky. Given the exchange rate between the dollar and the yen, the purchase of Summer Bird and the relocation of Street Sense is not shocking. Similarly, with the decline of synthetic tracks in the US and the success of his progeny in Europe it is not shocking that Ashford elected to move Henry back to Europe.
In total these stallions were bred to 757 mares in 2012. Assuming that the number of mares being bred stays constant, these 757 mares will be available to breed to the new stallions of 2013. But, in an era of 200 plus books these mares alone will not be enough to fill the books of the new stallions. Accordingly, it appears that these new stallions will cannibalize the books of existing stallions. Without an addition of mares, it would appear that competition will be stiff for mares this spring. I had worried that this fall would see an exodus of stallions from Kentucky to make room for the new; however, the exodus may occur next year if the new stallions reduce demand for existing stallions below the 40 mare threshold.
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