A Modest Proposal

            Instead of declaring jihad on Lasix and avoiding the resulting wasted time, energy, and ink debating the decision and whether or not two year old horses actually bled during the Breeder’s Cup, imagine if instead the Jockey Club chose a different path.  Imagine if they made a decision that would demonstrably improve the breed and actually help stabilize the value of bloodstock going forward?  By using its power over the registration of thoroughbreds, the Jockey Club should start reducing – gradually – the number of foals sired by a stallion that it will register in a given birth year.

            People have worried about the explosion of stallion books but there has been no mechanism to control the number of mares bred save for the calendar and the number of hours in a day.  However, the Jockey Club should set a maximum number of live foals from one stallion that it will register in a particular year for the Northern Hemisphere       (“Maximum Number”).  Then, in subsequent years the Maximum Number can be lowered.  While the stud farms may claim restraint of trade, there is no prohibition on breeding their stallion as many times as possible; there would only be a limit on the number of foals from that stallion that can be registered for a particular year.  In fact given losses to due miscarriage, still birth, and the like, a farm would still be able to breed to more mares than the Maximum Number.  Using the Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred for 2011 and 2012 provides some idea of where the initial maximum number could be set for foals of 2015. 

            In 2011, the Jockey Club reported that Congrats was bred to 205 mares, Giant’s Causeway was bred to 198, Bellamy Road to 192, Scat Daddy to 191, and Henrythenavigator bred to 189.  Just outside the top 5 were stallions like Candy Ride at 182 mares and Malibu Moon with 172 Northern Hemisphere mares and another 21 bred on Southern Hemisphere schedule.    

In 2012 as optimism returned to breeding, four stallions were bred to well over 200 mares with Cape Blanco seeing 220 mares, Scat Daddy breeding to 217, Kitten’s Joy breeding 213 mares, and Uncle Mo having 211 mares.  Oddly enough a sizeable gap opened in 2012 between these four stallions and the next group of stallions (Wilburn, Majestic Warrior, and Giant’s Causeway) at 169, 167, and 166 mares, respectively.

 Based on these figures, the Jockey Club could set the Maximum Number of live foals that it would register from one stallion in 2015 at 160 with an announcement of a schedule of gradual decreases over time.  Assuming approximately an 80% stands and nurses rate, this would allow a maximum stallion book of approximately 200 mares for 2014 as evidenced by the 2012 live foal reports for Congrats reflecting 205 mares bred and 161 live foals reported.  However, a Maximum Number of 160 would prevent stallion books of 210 or more mares barring bad luck or poor stallion fertility.  To account for “exceptionally fertile” years the Jockey Club could allow for the registration of a handful of foals beyond the Maximum Number provided that (i) the “additional” foals could not be registered (or sold) until they were yearlings to deter parties from “rolling the dice” and (ii) the “additional” foals would be reduced from the stallion’s “Maximum Number” in the subsequent year to deter stud farms from over breeding the stallion and hoping for miscarriages or still births. 

If the Jockey Club imposed the Maximum Number and announced a schedule to reduce the Maximum Number over time, it would limit over breeding to a handful of stallions while boosting the value of seasons and foals from those stallions by limiting supply, and give time for stallion farms and owners to adjust to the existence of the Maximum Number.  The Jockey Club could even exempt a first year stallion from the Maximum Number if that trade off were necessary to impose the Maximum Number.

While stallion farms and share owners may oppose any limit of seasons, it would only impact a handful of commercial stallions and should boost the value of the seasons in those stallions by limiting the supply.  As the books of the most commercial stallions fill, owners of mares who were shut out will “trade down” to other stallions who will likely be owned or managed by the same farms and share owners that might initially oppose the Maximum Number.  This proposal is not based on speculative science, does no harm to horses, and does not force fratricidal struggles between owners and trainers.  It might alter the rate of return on certain stallion deals and is therefore probably as radioactive as anything that could be suggested.  Anyway, back to the previously scheduled war on Lasix…