When Keeneland
announced it was pulling up its Polytrack and returning to dirt, many
questioned the decision noting that the full fields the meet attracted and that
the synthetic surface caused fewer catastrophic breakdowns. While Keeneland’s desire to host the
Breeders’ Cup seems to be the primary motivation to return to dirt, the status
of the Spring Meet’s premier race, the Bluegrass Stakes as a legitimate
Kentucky Derby prep had to factor into that decision.
While
the “Stonecutters”[1] at
Churchill Downs elected to treat the Bluegrass Stakes as equally worthy of
qualifying points as the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, and
Florida Derby, there is a perception that the quality of the winners and field
of the Bluegrass Stakes has suffered since the conversion to Polytrack. As a result, many apparently conclude that
the winner of the Bluegrass Stakes is an instant “toss” when entered in the
Kentucky Derby either because their synthetic form is unlikely to transfer to
dirt, or because the race surface is fluky.
(Whether or not this belief existed and had validity back when
Keeneland’s quirky, speed favoring dirt track was in place is another
question.) The expressed willingness of
the connections of the 2014 winner of the Bluegrass Stakes to skip the Kentucky
Derby only serves to further the belief that synthetic winners represent some
different type of horse whose form does not always carry over to dirt or turf.
To
try to determine whether there was any data to support these beliefs and perceptions,
I took examined the post-Bluegrass racing careers of the seven winners of the
Bluegrass on Polytrack (2007 to 2012) with the post-Bluegrass racing careers of
the last eight winners of the Bluegrass when Keeneland had a dirt track.
First the Polytrack
winners
|
Year Won
|
Name of
Bluegrass Winner
|
Post BG Stakes
Wins
|
Post BG Stakes
Places
|
Post BG Stakes
Shows
|
Number of Starts
Post-BG
|
|
2013
|
Java's War
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
3
|
|
2012
|
Dullahan
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
10
|
|
2011
|
Brilliant Speed
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
13
|
|
2010
|
Stately Victor
|
0
|
0
|
6
|
18
|
|
2009
|
General Quarters
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
16
|
|
2008
|
Monba
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
5
|
|
2007
|
Dominican
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
15
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Starts
|
80
|
While
Java’s War is still racing, it is interesting to note that these horses only
won 3 graded stakes in their combined 80 starts after winning the Bluegrass. Not surprisingly, these three wins were on
synthetic (Dullahan’s Pacific Classic win) or on turf (Brilliant Speed’s
victory in the Sarnac (G3) and General Quarters win in Woodford Reserve Turf
Classic (G1)). Also only two of these
horses finished in the money in any Triple Crown race (Dullahan’s third in the
Kentucky Derby and Brilliant Speed’s third in the Belmont). While running in
the Kentucky Derby may have impaired or harmed the post-Bluegrass career of
horses like Monba and Java’s War, the rest all made more than 10 starts after
winning a Grade 1 race! In this day and
age that many starts with that few wins certainly suggests that the commercial
market placed a low value on a victory in a synthetic Bluegrass Stake. The lack of wins provides some evidence for
the notion that results on Polytrack are somewhat fluky as these horses rarely
won subsequent graded stakes on synthetic surfaces at Grade 2 and Grade 3
levels.
Now
for the last 8 winners on the “old” dirt track
|
Year Won
|
Name of Bluegrass
Winner
|
Post BG Stakes
Wins
|
Post BG Stakes
Places
|
Post BG Stakes
Shows
|
Number of Starts
Post-BG
|
|
2006
|
Sinister Minister
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
8
|
|
2005
|
Bandini
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
4
|
|
2004
|
The Cliff's Edge
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
5
|
|
2003
|
Peace Rules
|
4
|
1
|
1
|
11
|
|
2002
|
Harlan's Holiday
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
12
|
|
2001
|
Millennium Wind
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
2000
|
High Yield
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
2
|
|
1999
|
Menifee
|
1
|
3
|
1
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Starts
|
50
|
While the racing career of these
eight horses is over, they arguably compiled a more impressive and consistent race
record following their Bluegrass Stakes victory than their seven Polytrack
counterparts. From only 50 starts, these
horses won 8 graded stakes with Peace Rules winning four Grade 1 races, Menifee
winning the Haskell (G1), Harlan’s Holiday winning the Donn (G1) and the
Pennsylvania Derby (G2), and Bandini winning the Skip Away. Also, The Cliff’s Edge and Menifee finished
second in multiple Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness for
Menifee and the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup for The Cliff’s Edge. Despite this success, it is odd to note that
only two of these eight horses (Peace Rules and Menifee) finished in the money
in any Triple Crown race. This coupled
with the subsequent racing success of several of these horses certainly lends
credence that success in Triple Crown races is a function of luck as much as
ability. Also, all of these horses
except Sinister Minister and Peace Rules started their stallion career in
Kentucky which certainly suggests that commercial breeders valued these horses
based, in part, on their victory in the Bluegrass Stakes. While the commercial market was certainly
tougher during the Polytrack era, few of those winners have been of interest to
breeders with only Brilliant Speed currently at stud in Kentucky although
Dullahan certainly a candidate for commercial success had he survived. Thus, it appears from this data that the dirt
winners of the Bluegrass Stakes were more valuable as stallion prospects based,
in part on their victory in the Bluegrass Stakes, and were more consistent,
successful horses in their subsequent graded stakes starts.
While I have enjoyed the Polytrack
era at Keeneland, reviewing this data has led me to the conclusion that a
return to dirt is a positive. If you
believe as I do that Grade 1 races should be a proving ground for the horses to
determine the superior athlete, then the performances of those winners going
forward becomes important. If the
Polytrack surface led to fluky Bluegrass Stakes winners or to horses ill-suited
to competing in the Kentucky Derby having a “free pass” to the entry gate, then
Keeneland’s Polytrack was hurting its premier race by diminishing the value of
winning that race for owners, breeders, and horses. Now they just need to avoid making the new
dirt track a conveyor belt to create the same problem.
