Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Why Pull Up Polytrack? A Look at Recent Winners of The Bluegrass Stakes

 
     When Keeneland announced it was pulling up its Polytrack and returning to dirt, many questioned the decision noting that the full fields the meet attracted and that the synthetic surface caused fewer catastrophic breakdowns.  While Keeneland’s desire to host the Breeders’ Cup seems to be the primary motivation to return to dirt, the status of the Spring Meet’s premier race, the Bluegrass Stakes as a legitimate Kentucky Derby prep had to factor into that decision. 
While the “Stonecutters”[1] at Churchill Downs elected to treat the Bluegrass Stakes as equally worthy of qualifying points as the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, and Florida Derby, there is a perception that the quality of the winners and field of the Bluegrass Stakes has suffered since the conversion to Polytrack.  As a result, many apparently conclude that the winner of the Bluegrass Stakes is an instant “toss” when entered in the Kentucky Derby either because their synthetic form is unlikely to transfer to dirt, or because the race surface is fluky.  (Whether or not this belief existed and had validity back when Keeneland’s quirky, speed favoring dirt track was in place is another question.)  The expressed willingness of the connections of the 2014 winner of the Bluegrass Stakes to skip the Kentucky Derby only serves to further the belief that synthetic winners represent some different type of horse whose form does not always carry over to dirt or turf.
To try to determine whether there was any data to support these beliefs and perceptions, I took examined the post-Bluegrass racing careers of the seven winners of the Bluegrass on Polytrack (2007 to 2012) with the post-Bluegrass racing careers of the last eight winners of the Bluegrass when Keeneland had a dirt track. 

First the Polytrack winners

Year Won
Name of Bluegrass Winner
Post BG Stakes Wins
Post BG Stakes Places
Post BG Stakes Shows
Number of Starts Post-BG
2013
Java's War
0
0
0
3
2012
Dullahan
1
0
2
10
2011
Brilliant Speed
1
1
5
13
2010
Stately Victor
0
0
6
18
2009
General Quarters
1
3
1
16
2008
Monba
0
0
2
5
2007
Dominican
0
2
2
15




 Total Starts
80

While Java’s War is still racing, it is interesting to note that these horses only won 3 graded stakes in their combined 80 starts after winning the Bluegrass.  Not surprisingly, these three wins were on synthetic (Dullahan’s Pacific Classic win) or on turf (Brilliant Speed’s victory in the Sarnac (G3) and General Quarters win in Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1)).  Also only two of these horses finished in the money in any Triple Crown race (Dullahan’s third in the Kentucky Derby and Brilliant Speed’s third in the Belmont). While running in the Kentucky Derby may have impaired or harmed the post-Bluegrass career of horses like Monba and Java’s War, the rest all made more than 10 starts after winning a Grade 1 race!  In this day and age that many starts with that few wins certainly suggests that the commercial market placed a low value on a victory in a synthetic Bluegrass Stake.  The lack of wins provides some evidence for the notion that results on Polytrack are somewhat fluky as these horses rarely won subsequent graded stakes on synthetic surfaces at Grade 2 and Grade 3 levels. 
 
Now for the last 8 winners on the “old” dirt track
Year Won
Name of Bluegrass Winner
Post BG Stakes Wins
Post BG Stakes Places
Post BG Stakes Shows
Number of Starts Post-BG
2006
Sinister Minister
0
0
0
8
2005
Bandini
1
0
0
4
2004
The Cliff's Edge
0
3
1
5
2003
Peace Rules
4
1
1
11
2002
Harlan's Holiday
2
2
1
12
2001
Millennium Wind
0
0
0
2
2000
High Yield
0
0
0
2
1999
Menifee
1
3
1
6




 Total Starts
50
                 
            While the racing career of these eight horses is over, they arguably compiled a more impressive and consistent race record following their Bluegrass Stakes victory than their seven Polytrack counterparts.  From only 50 starts, these horses won 8 graded stakes with Peace Rules winning four Grade 1 races, Menifee winning the Haskell (G1), Harlan’s Holiday winning the Donn (G1) and the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), and Bandini winning the Skip Away.  Also, The Cliff’s Edge and Menifee finished second in multiple Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness for Menifee and the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup for The Cliff’s Edge.  Despite this success, it is odd to note that only two of these eight horses (Peace Rules and Menifee) finished in the money in any Triple Crown race.  This coupled with the subsequent racing success of several of these horses certainly lends credence that success in Triple Crown races is a function of luck as much as ability.  Also, all of these horses except Sinister Minister and Peace Rules started their stallion career in Kentucky which certainly suggests that commercial breeders valued these horses based, in part, on their victory in the Bluegrass Stakes.  While the commercial market was certainly tougher during the Polytrack era, few of those winners have been of interest to breeders with only Brilliant Speed currently at stud in Kentucky although Dullahan certainly a candidate for commercial success had he survived.  Thus, it appears from this data that the dirt winners of the Bluegrass Stakes were more valuable as stallion prospects based, in part on their victory in the Bluegrass Stakes, and were more consistent, successful horses in their subsequent graded stakes starts. 
            While I have enjoyed the Polytrack era at Keeneland, reviewing this data has led me to the conclusion that a return to dirt is a positive.  If you believe as I do that Grade 1 races should be a proving ground for the horses to determine the superior athlete, then the performances of those winners going forward becomes important.  If the Polytrack surface led to fluky Bluegrass Stakes winners or to horses ill-suited to competing in the Kentucky Derby having a “free pass” to the entry gate, then Keeneland’s Polytrack was hurting its premier race by diminishing the value of winning that race for owners, breeders, and horses.  Now they just need to avoid making the new dirt track a conveyor belt to create the same problem. 


[1] Obligatory Simpsons reference.


Saturday, January 5, 2013

Cutting 10% of Grade 1 Races Part 1



The American Graded Stakes Committee of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association has deemed 112 races in 2013 worthy of Grade 1 status.  When the 13 Grade 1 Breeders Cup races which vary by location, distance, and surface are removed, there are 99 Grade 1 races left.  These 99 races are supposed to represent the best of American racing.   In theory, breeders should be striving to breed horses to win these races.  Accordingly, the horses that win these races should be the best horses for breeding the next generation of Grade 1 horses.  However, given the decline in domestic foal crops from 37,775 in 2000 to 24,700 in 2012, 112 grade 1 races dilutes the prestige and worth of a “grade 1 race.” 

To increase the prestige of winning a Grade 1 race I thought it would be interesting experiment to downgrade ten percent of the non-Breeders Cup Grade 1 races.  These ten races would become Grade 2 races in 2014. Then in 2015, ten percent of Grade 2 races would be downgraded and so on.  But, one cannot downgrade ten races without (i) reviewing all of the 99 races sorted by track, surface, and distance and (ii) considering what it means to win that particular race in the context of the breed.  A chart of these 99 Grade 1 races sorted by track, surface, and distance is below and provides the target of what American breeders should be trying to produce each spring.  Unfortunately, the list of races shows that the target is primarily dirt and steadily decreasing in distance. 


Race
Track
Surface
Distance in Furlongs
Restrictions
Beverly D. S.
AP
T
9.5
3UP F/M
Arlington Million S.
AP
T
10
3UP
Secretariat S.
AP
T
10
3YO
Carter H.
AQU
D
7
3UP
Cigar Mile H.
AQU
D
8
3UP
Resorts World Casino New York City Wood Memorial S.
AQU
D
9
3YO
Vosburgh Invitational S.
BEL
D
6
3UP
Foxwoods Champagne S.
BEL
D
8
2YO
Frizette S.
BEL
D
8
2YO F
Metropolitan H.
BEL
D
8
3UP
Tvg Acorn S.
BEL
D
8
3YO F
Mother Goose S.
BEL
D
8.5
3YO F
Ogden Phipps H.
BEL
D
8.5
3UP F/M
Beldame Invitational S.
BEL
D
9
3UP F/M
Tvg Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational S.
BEL
D
10
3UP
Belmont S.
BEL
D
12
3YO
Longines Just A Game S.
BEL
T
8
3UP F/M
Garden City S.
BEL
T
9
3YO F
Jamaica H.
BEL
T
9
3YO
Flower Bowl Invitational S.
BEL
T
10
3UP F/M
Woodford Reserve Manhattan H.
BEL
T
10
3UP
Man O' War S.
BEL
T
11
3UP
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational S.
BEL
T
12
3UP
Humana Distaff S.
CD
D
7
3UP F/M
Clark H.
CD
D
9
3UP
Kentucky Oaks
CD
D
9
3YO F
Stephen Foster H.
CD
D
9
3UP
Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands
CD
D
10
3YO
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S.
CD
T
12
3UP
Princess Rooney H.
CRC
D
6
3UP F/M
Delaware H.
DEL
D
10
3UP F/M
Bing Crosby S.
DMR
S
6
3UP
Del Mar Debutante S.
DMR
S
7
2YO F
Del Mar Futurity
DMR
S
7
2YO
Clement L. Hirsch S.
DMR
S
8.5
3UP F/M
Tvg Pacific Classic S.
DMR
S
10
3UP
Del Mar Oaks
DMR
T
9
3YO F
Eddie Read S.
DMR
T
9
3UP
Florida Derby
GP
D
9
3YO
Donn H.
GP
D
10
3UP
Gulfstream Park Turf H.
GP
T
9
3UP
Triple Bend H.
HOL
S
7
3UP
Cashcall Futurity
HOL
S
8.5
2YO
Hollywood Starlet S.
HOL
S
8.5
2YO F
Vanity H.
HOL
S
9
3UP F/M
Hollywood Gold Cup H.
HOL
S
10
3UP
Matriarch S.
HOL
T
1
3UP F/M
Shoemaker Mile S.
HOL
T
8
3UP
Gamely S.
HOL
T
9
3UP F/M
Hollywood Derby
HOL
T
10
3YO
American Oaks S.
HOL
T
10
3YOF
Vinery Madison S.
KEE
S
7
3UP F/M
Central Bank Ashland S.
KEE
S
8.5
3YO F
Darley Alcibiades S.
KEE
S
8.5
2YO F
Dixiana Breeders' Futurity
KEE
S
8.5
2YO
Juddmonte Spinster S.
KEE
S
9
3UP F/M
Toyota Blue Grass S.
KEE
S
9
3YO
First Lady S.
KEE
T
8
3UP F/M
Maker's 46 Mile S.
KEE
T
8
3UP
Shadwell Turf Mile S.
KEE
T
8
3UP
Jenny Wiley S.
KEE
T
8.5
3UP F/M
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup S.
KEE
T
9
3YO F
Haskell Invitational S.
MTH
D
9
3YO
United Nations S.
MTH
T
10
3UP
Apple Blossom H.
OP
D
9
3UP F/M
Arkansas Derby
OP
D
9
3YO
Preakness S.
PIM
D
9.5
3YO
Cotillion S.
PRX
D
8.5
3YO F
Santa Anita Sprint Championship S.
SA
D
6
3UP
La Brea S.
SA
D
7
3YO F
Malibu S.
SA
D
7
3YO
Las Virgenes S.
SA
D
8
3YO F
Chandelier S.
SA
D
8.5
2YO F
Frontrunner S.
SA
D
8.5
2YO
Santa Anita Oaks
SA
D
8.5
3YO F
Zenyatta S.
SA
D
8.5
3UP F/M
Awesome Again S.
SA
D
9
3UP
Santa Anita Derby
SA
D
9
3YO
Santa Margarita Invitational S.
SA
D
9
3UP F/M
Santa Anita H.
SA
D
10
3UP
Frank E. Kilroe Mile S.
SA
T
8
3UP
Rodeo Drive S.
SA
T
10
3UP F/M
Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.
SAR
D
6
3UP
Prioress S.
SAR
D
6
3YO F
Ballerina S.
SAR
D
7
3UP F/M
Forego S.
SAR
D
7
3UP
Foxwoods King's Bishop S.
SAR
D
7
3YO
Spinaway S.
SAR
D
7
2YO F
Test S.
SAR
D
7
3YO F
Three Chimneys Hopeful S.
SAR
D
7
2YO
Tvg Coaching Club American Oaks
SAR
D
9
3YO F
Whitney Invitational H.
SAR
D
9
3UP
Woodward S.
SAR
D
9
3UP
Alabama S.
SAR
D
10
3YOF
Personal Ensign H.
SAR
D
10
3UP F/M
Travers S.
SAR
D
10
3YO
Diana S.
SAR
T
9
3UP F/M
Sword Dancer Invitational S.
SAR
T
12
3UP


First Five Downgraded Races

Given the scarcity of horses with stamina who race on turf in America, I would suggest that the United Nation Stakes at Monmouth and the Jamaica Stakes at Belmont be downgraded to Grade 2 stakes.  The recent winners of the United Nations (Turbo Compressor, Teaks North, and Cinchon) and of the Jamaica (King David, Western Aristocrat, and Prince Will I Am) do not compare to the winners of comparable Grade 1 turf races like the Sword Dancer (Point of Entry, Winchester, and Telling) and the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (Little Mike, Get Stormy, and General Quarters).  For whatever reason (host track or time of year) the best horses are not running in these two races.  In fact, in the past three years both moderately talented horses (Cinchon and Western Aristrocrat) shipped over from Europe to win each of these races.  Lack of depth in domestic turf breeding may provide strong arguments to downgrade other turf races; however, only 28 of the 99 grade 1 races are on turf at all distances and for all ages and both sexes.  Thus, additional downgrades of turf races would be out of proportion to the total number of races and harmful to efforts to increase stamina in the American genepool.       

            If these are the only two turf races to be downgraded, then the other eight downgrades must come from the 71 grade 1 races run on dirt or synthetic surfaces.  These downgrades are roughly equal to the overall ratio of turf (2 out 28 races equals 7.1%) to dirt and synthetic races (8 out of 71 races equals 11.2%)  When you review these remaining races, there are six races at a mile and sixteenth for fillies and mares above three years old excluding preps for the Kentucky Oaks.  While top notch fillies and mares have won races like the Mother Goose, the Ogden Phipps, Cotillion, the Zenyatta/Yellow Ribbon, the Clement Hirsch (synthetic), and the Jenny Wiley (turf), it is hard to argue that so many races at a non-classic distance is necessary.  This many races for females at a mile and a sixteenth apparently derive from an odd mix of sexism (females cannot run 9 furlongs and beyond) and fears of limited stamina in domestic bloodstock (somewhat true but somewhat overblown).  The recent success of mares at classic distances disproves both of these notions.  Because the Phipps is open to three year olds and up, I would downgrade the Mother Goose and the Cotillion and either the Hirsch or the Zenyatta.  There seems little point in having Grade 1 races in the summer and fall at a mile and sixteenth when top quality fillies have already run 9 furlongs in the Oaks  Downgrading these races might prompt the Racing Secretaries to increase the distance of these races to 9 or 10 furlongs.  Hopefully, the increased distance of these races might prompt breeders to breed for additional stamina which is a pet project of mine.                
 
I will post the other five Grade 1 stakes that I think should be downgraded in a few days, but what are your thoughts on downgrading the (i) United Nations at Monmouth, (ii) the Jamaica Handicap at Belmont, (iii) the Mother Goose at Belmont, (iv) the Cotillion at Parx, and (v) either the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar or the Zenyatta at Santa Anita.  Agree or disagree? 

The next post will try to trim the numerous sprint races and look at whether or not all of the Derby preps deserve their Grade 1 status.