Churchill Downs released a
"point" system today to determine who will start in the Kentucky
Derby. The general result is a "tiered" set of races with
increasing worth as you near the Derby. To see how this system works I applied
the point system to three prior Derbies 2008, 2010, and 2011. I picked
these years to see if Bluegrass Cat would still make the field in 2008 despite
his poor form and because 2010 and 2011 were recent enough to limit the
research. The results are discussed below and indicate that while the
"point system" looks dramatic, it does not appear to alter the field
substantially. The biggest impact of the point system is the omission of
the Illinois Derby and fillies who have not earned points against males. While heralded as progressive action, my fear
is that this "point" system is marketing hype that may decrease the
excitement of the Derby prep season without changing the composition of the
field. I plan a second post that will
consider the implications going forward.
At the outset, let me
note that had the point system been in effect in these years that trainers
could have selected different races for their horses as several folks on
twitter pointed out. However, if you assume that trainers generally run
their horses where they can win or be competitive, then this argument should
not substantially change the results. The only instances where the point
system may have forced trainers into different races appears to be Uncle Mo in
2011 choosing the "made up" Timely Writer over the Tampa Bay Derby,
or when a rivalry develops between two horses on the Derby trail like Noble's
Promise and Lookin at Lucky. Here, the point system could force those two
competitors apart at the cost of competitive racing.
2008
Kentucky Derby
|
Horses in Order of
Graded Stakes Earnings (Derby Starters in Bold)
|
Total Points Under
New System
|
Derby Field Under
New Point System
|
|
Brother Derek
|
221
|
Brother Derek
|
|
Lawyer Ron
|
210
|
Lawyer Ron
|
|
Barbaro
|
110
|
Bob and John
|
|
Bob and John
|
162
|
Barbaro
|
|
Sinister Minister
|
100
|
Sinister Minister
|
|
Private Vow
|
30
|
AP Warrior
|
|
AP Warrior
|
77
|
Bluegrass Cat
|
|
Sweetnorthernsaint
|
10
|
Steppenwolfer
|
|
Sharp Humor
|
40
|
Point Determined
|
|
Bluegrass Cat
|
60
|
Deputy Glitters
|
|
Steppenwolfer
|
60
|
Sharp Humor
|
|
Keyed Entry
|
40
|
Keyed Entry
|
|
Showing Up
|
20
|
Jazil
|
|
Point Determined
|
60
|
Storm Treasure
|
|
Cause to Believe
|
10
|
Sacred Light
|
|
Deputy Glitters
|
54
|
Private Vow
|
|
Jazil
|
40
|
Flashy Bull
|
|
Storm Treasure
|
40
|
Seaside Retreat
|
|
Seaside Retreat
|
22
|
Red Raymond
|
|
Flashy Bull
|
25
|
Showing Up
|
|
|
|
|
|
Also Eligible
|
|
Also Eligible
|
|
Sunriver
|
20
|
Sunriver
|
|
Sacred Light
|
40
|
Strong Contender
|
|
Red Raymond
|
22
|
Sweetnorthernsaint
|
|
Malameeze
|
10
|
Cause to Believe
|
|
Strong Contender
|
20
|
Malameeze
|
I
selected 2008 for this experiment because I wanted to see if Bluegrass Cat
would make the field as I remembered his two year old form tailing off at three
until his second place finish in the Derby.
Under the point system and given the dominance of Brother Derek and
Lawyer Ron in the prep races, Bluegrass Cat did not have to worry. Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron would have
earned more than 200 points apiece with Showing Up and Sunriver tying for the
20th spot with 20 points apiece.
The 2008 Derby is interesting because the point system would have
excluded Sweetnorthernsaint who made the field due to his victory in the
Illinois Derby. The exclusion of
Sweetnorthernsaint is despite the fact that he was the post-time favorite in a
Derby won by the dominating Barbaro.
Applying the point system to 2008 seems to suggest that a substantial
number of horses that have little chance to win the Derby will still make it to
the gate if two or three talented horses dominate the Derby preps. This does not seem to be a significant change
over the present system.
2011
Kentucky Derby Field
|
Horses in Order of Graded
Stakes Earnings (Derby Starters in Bold)
|
Total Points Under
New System
|
Derby Field Under
New Point System
|
|
Uncle Mo (Entered
Did Not Start)
|
40
|
Archarcharch
|
|
Dialed In
|
110
|
Dialed In
|
|
Archarcharch
|
115
|
Pants on Fire
|
|
Comma to the Top
|
57
|
Midnight Interlude
|
|
Pants on Fire
|
104
|
Brilliant Speed
|
|
Midnight Interlude
|
100
|
Nehro
|
|
Soldat
|
50
|
Mucho Macho Man
|
|
Brilliant Speed
|
100
|
Twinspired
|
|
Master of Hounds
|
40
|
Comma to the Top
|
|
Nehro
|
80
|
Watch Me Go
|
|
Twice the Appeal
|
50
|
Soldat
|
|
Mucho Macho Man
|
75
|
Twice the Appeal
|
|
Decisive Moment
|
24
|
Animal Kingdom
|
|
Animal Kingdom
|
50
|
Stay Thirsty
|
|
Stay Thirsty
|
50
|
Uncle Mo
|
|
Santiva
|
24
|
Master of Hounds
|
|
Watch Me Go
|
52
|
Shackleford
|
|
Shackleford
|
40
|
Norman Asbjornson
|
|
Twinspired
|
60
|
Decisive Moment
|
|
Derby Kitten
|
20
|
Santiva
|
|
|
|
|
|
Also Eligible
|
|
Also Eligible
|
|
Sway Away
|
10
|
Derby Kitten
|
|
Machen
|
5
|
Mr. Commons
|
|
Brethern
|
10
|
Dance City
|
|
Flashpoint
|
10
|
Sway Away
|
|
Mr. Commons
|
20
|
Brethern
|
|
Dance City
|
20
|
Flashpoint
|
|
Norman Asbjornson
|
30
|
Machen
|
In 2011, the points system would have
little impact. Unlike 2008, the point totals for 2011 are more spread out
with 115 being the highest point total and a three way tie for 20th
place with twenty points. The only
change is that Norman Asbjornson's 4th place finish in the Wood propels him to
a spot in the starting gate knocking out Derby Kitten. As a positive,
race fans would get to hear the media struggle to pronounce Norman Asbjornson
for the week prior to the Derby. Unfortunately,
the point system would not have forced Uncle Mo into a more aggressive 3 year
old campaign as he still easily makes the field with a 3rd or even 4th in the
Wood or any other final prep race.
2010
Kentucky Derby
|
Horses in Order of
Graded Stakes Earnings (Derby Starters in Bold)
|
Total Points Under
New System
|
Rank Under New System
|
|
Lookin at Lucky
|
94
|
Sidney's Candy
|
|
Noble's Promise
|
36
|
Mission Impazible
|
|
Sidney's Candy
|
150
|
Line of David
|
|
Line of David
|
100
|
Ice Box
|
|
Mission Impazible
|
101
|
Stately Victor
|
|
Ice Box
|
100
|
Lookin at Lucky
|
|
Stately Victor
|
100
|
Awesome Act
|
|
Conveyance
|
40
|
Discreetly Mine
|
|
American Lion
|
7
|
Jackson Bend
|
|
Dublin
|
34
|
Super Saver
|
|
Super Saver
|
61
|
Setsuko
|
|
Devil May Care
|
0
|
Dean's Kitten
|
|
Discreetly Mine
|
64
|
Pleasant Prince
|
|
Dean's Kitten
|
50
|
Conveyance
|
|
Awesome Act
|
70
|
Paddy O'Prado
|
|
Paddy O'Prado
|
40
|
A Little Warm
|
|
Homeboykris
|
10
|
Caracortado
|
|
Jackson Bend
|
62
|
Noble's Promise
|
|
Backtalk
|
0
|
Dublin
|
|
Make Music for Me
|
2
|
Drosselmeyer
|
|
|
|
|
|
Also Eligible
|
|
Also Eligible
|
|
Pleasant Prince
|
45
|
Yawanna Twist
|
|
A Little Warm
|
40
|
First Dude
|
|
Setsuko
|
60
|
Homeboykris
|
|
Caracortado
|
40
|
American Lion
|
|
Yawanna Twist
|
20
|
Make Music for Me
|
|
Eightyfiveinafifty
|
0
|
Devil May Care
|
|
First Dude
|
20
|
Backtalk
|
|
Drosselmeyer
|
25
|
Eightyfiveinafifty
|
In 2010, implementation of the
point system results in one-fourth of the field changing over as Homeboykris,
American Lion, Make Music for Me, Devil May Care, and Backtalk are excluded
from the field. As a result, Setsuko, Pleasant Prince, A Little Warm,
Caracortado, and Drosselmeyer all make the field. In 2010, the point totals range from 150 for
Sydney’s Candy to 25 points for Drosselmeyer in 20th place. The
exclusion of the Illinois Derby bars American Lion and Backtalk from the field while
refusing to award any credit for “fillies only” races excludes Devil May Care. Also, despite only earning 2 points under the
new system, Make Music For Me did make the field and finished 4th
when they actually ran the race. In
defense of the point system, the pedigrees and subsequent race performance of
horses like Drosselmeyer, Setsuko, and A Little Warm arguably “fit” the Derby
better than most of those horses that were excluded; however, the fate of
Noble’s Promise shows a serious flaw in the point system.
Despite his numerous races and
significant earnings, the point total of Noble’s Promise suggests that the
system can be distorted by “wins” which obscures the central question of who
the best 20 horses are. Despite being
second on the graded stakes earnings list, Noble’s Promise is eighteenth on the
point system essentially because he ran in tough races and lost to Lookin’
at Lucky three times. Noble’s
Promise was second to Lookin at Lucky in two races (Cashcall Futurity and Rebel
Stakes) and ran third to Lucky and Vale of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile;
however, his off the board finish in the Arkansas Derby would have made for
some nervous nights for his connections under the point system. If the system is modified to give some credit
to the Illinois Derby (as I think it will be), then Noble’s Promise would
likely have been excluded or been the last horse in. Unfortunately for racing fans, the point
system rewards wins and not rigorous campaigns that allow fans and bettors to
know a horse. For trainers like Todd
Pletcher keeping Derby prospects separate until the last minute will become
even more essential, and the first Saturday in May will become more of a
guessing game than it already is.
It
is hard to draw conclusions from only three years of retroactive application,
but it appears that between 20 to 25 points will be the minimum to make the
field in most years. Unfortunately, a
horse only needs to finish in the money in two lower tier races or hit the
board in one of the Grade 1 preps to achieve this goal. The fact that a talented, game horse like
Noble’s Promise might be excluded from the Derby field is equally
troubling. The systems emphasis on
“winning” without regard for who you raced seems to reward trainers who protect
their horses from competition until absolutely necessary. Stakes races with small field or hopelessly
outmatched runners are bad for the sport.
This situation is unlikely to improve as horses race less and foal crops
are smaller.
Similarly, the exclusion of the
Illinois Derby while treating the UAE Derby as the equivalent of the Arkansas
Derby lacks justification and common sense.
While no one waits to pick their Derby horse until after they run the
Illinois Derby, this exclusion seems more a result of corporate strategy or
snobbery than anything else. If you are
only looking at performance in the Kentucky Derby, then horses exiting the Illinois
Derby along with their counterparts from the Louisiana Derby and Bluegrass
Stakes rarely appear among the top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby.
As I hope to discuss in the next
post, this “point” system smacks more of marketing and television than any real
effort to improve the field quality. It
is overly complex and picks and chooses “favorite” races to reward with higher
points. A simpler and fairer system might
have been to (i) exclude all graded earnings from races at less than a mile,
(ii) exclude graded earnings from turf races, and (iii) discount graded
earnings from the two-year old campaign by half.
