Instead
of declaring jihad on Lasix and avoiding the resulting wasted time, energy, and
ink debating the decision and whether or not two year old horses actually bled
during the Breeder’s Cup, imagine if instead the Jockey Club chose a different
path. Imagine if they made a decision
that would demonstrably improve the breed and actually help stabilize the value
of bloodstock going forward? By using
its power over the registration of thoroughbreds, the Jockey Club should start
reducing – gradually – the number of foals sired by a stallion that it will
register in a given birth year.
People
have worried about the explosion of stallion books but there has been no
mechanism to control the number of mares bred save for the calendar and the
number of hours in a day. However, the
Jockey Club should set a maximum number of live foals from one stallion
that it will register in a particular year for the Northern Hemisphere (“Maximum Number”). Then, in subsequent years the Maximum Number
can be lowered. While the stud farms may
claim restraint of trade, there is no prohibition on breeding their stallion as
many times as possible; there would only be a limit on the number of foals from
that stallion that can be registered for a particular year. In fact given losses to due miscarriage,
still birth, and the like, a farm would still be able to breed to more mares
than the Maximum Number. Using the
Jockey Club’s Report of Mares Bred for 2011 and 2012 provides some idea of
where the initial maximum number could be set for foals of 2015.
In
2011, the Jockey Club reported that Congrats was bred to 205 mares, Giant’s
Causeway was bred to 198, Bellamy Road to 192, Scat Daddy to 191, and
Henrythenavigator bred to 189. Just
outside the top 5 were stallions like Candy Ride at 182 mares and Malibu Moon
with 172 Northern Hemisphere mares and another 21 bred on Southern Hemisphere
schedule.
In 2012 as
optimism returned to breeding, four stallions were bred to well over 200 mares
with Cape Blanco seeing 220 mares, Scat Daddy breeding to 217, Kitten’s Joy
breeding 213 mares, and Uncle Mo having 211 mares. Oddly enough a sizeable gap opened in 2012
between these four stallions and the next group of stallions (Wilburn, Majestic
Warrior, and Giant’s Causeway) at 169, 167, and 166 mares, respectively.
Based on these figures, the Jockey Club could
set the Maximum Number of live foals that it would register from one stallion
in 2015 at 160 with an announcement of a schedule of gradual decreases over
time. Assuming approximately an 80% stands
and nurses rate, this would allow a maximum stallion book of approximately 200
mares for 2014 as evidenced by the 2012 live foal reports for Congrats reflecting
205 mares bred and 161 live foals reported.
However, a Maximum Number of 160 would prevent stallion books of 210 or
more mares barring bad luck or poor stallion fertility. To account for “exceptionally fertile” years
the Jockey Club could allow for the registration of a handful of foals beyond
the Maximum Number provided that (i) the “additional” foals could not be
registered (or sold) until they were yearlings to deter parties from “rolling
the dice” and (ii) the “additional” foals would be reduced from the stallion’s
“Maximum Number” in the subsequent year to deter stud farms from over breeding
the stallion and hoping for miscarriages or still births.
If the Jockey
Club imposed the Maximum Number and announced a schedule to reduce the Maximum
Number over time, it would limit over breeding to a handful of stallions while
boosting the value of seasons and foals from those stallions by limiting
supply, and give time for stallion farms and owners to adjust to the existence
of the Maximum Number. The Jockey Club
could even exempt a first year stallion from the Maximum Number if that trade
off were necessary to impose the Maximum Number.
While stallion
farms and share owners may oppose any limit of seasons, it would only impact a
handful of commercial stallions and should boost the value of the seasons in
those stallions by limiting the supply.
As the books of the most commercial stallions fill, owners of mares who
were shut out will “trade down” to other stallions who will likely be owned or
managed by the same farms and share owners that might initially oppose the
Maximum Number. This proposal is not
based on speculative science, does no harm to horses, and does not force fratricidal
struggles between owners and trainers.
It might alter the rate of return on certain stallion deals and is
therefore probably as radioactive as anything that could be suggested. Anyway, back to the previously scheduled war on Lasix…
