Friday, June 15, 2012

What is the Point of Churchill Downs' Point System?

  
Churchill Downs released a "point" system today to determine who will start in the Kentucky Derby.  The general result is a "tiered" set of races with increasing worth as you near the Derby.  To see how this system works I applied the point system to three prior Derbies 2008, 2010, and 2011.  I picked these years to see if Bluegrass Cat would still make the field in 2008 despite his poor form and because 2010 and 2011 were recent enough to limit the research.  The results are discussed below and indicate that while the "point system" looks dramatic, it does not appear to alter the field substantially.  The biggest impact of the point system is the omission of the Illinois Derby and fillies who have not earned points against males.  While heralded as progressive action, my fear is that this "point" system is marketing hype that may decrease the excitement of the Derby prep season without changing the composition of the field.  I plan a second post that will consider the implications going forward.
    At the outset, let me note that had the point system been in effect in these years that trainers could have selected different races for their horses as several folks on twitter pointed out.  However, if you assume that trainers generally run their horses where they can win or be competitive, then this argument should not substantially change the results.  The only instances where the point system may have forced trainers into different races appears to be Uncle Mo in 2011 choosing the "made up" Timely Writer over the Tampa Bay Derby, or when a rivalry develops between two horses on the Derby trail like Noble's Promise and Lookin at Lucky.  Here, the point system could force those two competitors apart at the cost of competitive racing.
2008 Kentucky Derby

Horses in Order of Graded Stakes Earnings (Derby Starters in Bold)
Total Points Under New System
Derby Field Under New Point System
Brother Derek
221
Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
210
Lawyer Ron
Barbaro
110
Bob and John
Bob and John
162
Barbaro
Sinister Minister
100
Sinister Minister
Private Vow
30
AP Warrior
AP Warrior
77
Bluegrass Cat
Sweetnorthernsaint
10
Steppenwolfer
Sharp Humor
40
Point Determined
Bluegrass Cat
60
Deputy Glitters
Steppenwolfer
60
Sharp Humor
Keyed Entry
40
Keyed Entry
Showing Up
20
Jazil
Point Determined
60
Storm Treasure
Cause to Believe
10
Sacred Light
Deputy Glitters
54
Private Vow
Jazil
40
Flashy Bull
Storm Treasure
40
Seaside Retreat
Seaside Retreat
22
Red Raymond
Flashy Bull
25
Showing Up



Also Eligible

Also Eligible
Sunriver
20
Sunriver
Sacred Light
40
Strong Contender
Red Raymond
22
Sweetnorthernsaint
Malameeze
10
Cause to Believe
Strong Contender
20
Malameeze

            I selected 2008 for this experiment because I wanted to see if Bluegrass Cat would make the field as I remembered his two year old form tailing off at three until his second place finish in the Derby.  Under the point system and given the dominance of Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron in the prep races, Bluegrass Cat did not have to worry.  Brother Derek and Lawyer Ron would have earned more than 200 points apiece with Showing Up and Sunriver tying for the 20th spot with 20 points apiece.  The 2008 Derby is interesting because the point system would have excluded Sweetnorthernsaint who made the field due to his victory in the Illinois Derby.  The exclusion of Sweetnorthernsaint is despite the fact that he was the post-time favorite in a Derby won by the dominating Barbaro.  Applying the point system to 2008 seems to suggest that a substantial number of horses that have little chance to win the Derby will still make it to the gate if two or three talented horses dominate the Derby preps.  This does not seem to be a significant change over the present system.    

2011 Kentucky Derby Field

Horses in Order of Graded Stakes Earnings (Derby Starters in Bold)
Total Points Under New System
Derby Field Under New Point System
Uncle Mo (Entered Did Not Start)
40
Archarcharch
Dialed In
110
Dialed In
Archarcharch
115
Pants on Fire
Comma to the Top
57
Midnight Interlude
Pants on Fire
104
Brilliant Speed
Midnight Interlude
100
Nehro
Soldat
50
Mucho Macho Man
Brilliant Speed
100
Twinspired
Master of Hounds
40
Comma to the Top
Nehro
80
Watch Me Go
Twice the Appeal
50
Soldat
Mucho Macho Man
75
Twice the Appeal
Decisive Moment
24
Animal Kingdom
Animal Kingdom
50
Stay Thirsty
Stay Thirsty
50
Uncle Mo
Santiva
24
Master of Hounds
Watch Me Go
52
Shackleford
Shackleford
40
Norman Asbjornson
Twinspired
60
Decisive Moment
Derby Kitten
20
Santiva



Also Eligible

Also Eligible
Sway Away
10
Derby Kitten
Machen
5
Mr. Commons
Brethern
10
Dance City
Flashpoint
10
Sway Away
Mr. Commons
20
Brethern
Dance City
20
Flashpoint
Norman Asbjornson
30
Machen

    In 2011, the points system would have little impact.  Unlike 2008, the point totals for 2011 are more spread out with 115 being the highest point total and a three way tie for 20th place with twenty points.  The only change is that Norman Asbjornson's 4th place finish in the Wood propels him to a spot in the starting gate knocking out Derby Kitten.  As a positive, race fans would get to hear the media struggle to pronounce Norman Asbjornson for the week prior to the Derby.  Unfortunately, the point system would not have forced Uncle Mo into a more aggressive 3 year old campaign as he still easily makes the field with a 3rd or even 4th in the Wood or any other final prep race. 
2010 Kentucky Derby

Horses in Order of Graded Stakes Earnings (Derby Starters in Bold)
Total Points Under New System
Rank Under New System
Lookin at Lucky
94
Sidney's Candy
Noble's Promise
36
Mission Impazible
Sidney's Candy
150
Line of David
Line of David
100
Ice Box
Mission Impazible
101
Stately Victor
Ice Box
100
Lookin at Lucky
Stately Victor
100
Awesome Act
Conveyance
40
Discreetly Mine
American Lion
7
Jackson Bend
Dublin
34
Super Saver
Super Saver
61
Setsuko
Devil May Care
0
Dean's Kitten
Discreetly Mine
64
Pleasant Prince
Dean's Kitten
50
Conveyance
Awesome Act
70
Paddy O'Prado
Paddy O'Prado
40
A Little Warm
Homeboykris
10
Caracortado
Jackson Bend
62
Noble's Promise
Backtalk
0
Dublin
Make Music for Me
2
Drosselmeyer



Also Eligible

Also Eligible
Pleasant Prince
45
Yawanna Twist
A Little Warm
40
First Dude
Setsuko
60
Homeboykris
Caracortado
40
American Lion
Yawanna Twist
20
Make Music for Me
Eightyfiveinafifty
0
Devil May Care
First Dude
20
Backtalk
Drosselmeyer
25
Eightyfiveinafifty

In 2010, implementation of the point system results in one-fourth of the field changing over as Homeboykris, American Lion, Make Music for Me, Devil May Care, and Backtalk are excluded from the field.  As a result, Setsuko, Pleasant Prince, A Little Warm, Caracortado, and Drosselmeyer all make the field.  In 2010, the point totals range from 150 for Sydney’s Candy to 25 points for Drosselmeyer in 20th place. The exclusion of the Illinois Derby bars American Lion and Backtalk from the field while refusing to award any credit for “fillies only” races excludes Devil May Care.  Also, despite only earning 2 points under the new system, Make Music For Me did make the field and finished 4th when they actually ran the race.  In defense of the point system, the pedigrees and subsequent race performance of horses like Drosselmeyer, Setsuko, and A Little Warm arguably “fit” the Derby better than most of those horses that were excluded; however, the fate of Noble’s Promise shows a serious flaw in the point system.
  Despite his numerous races and significant earnings, the point total of Noble’s Promise suggests that the system can be distorted by “wins” which obscures the central question of who the best 20 horses are.  Despite being second on the graded stakes earnings list, Noble’s Promise is eighteenth on the point system essentially because he ran in tough races and lost to Lookin’ at Lucky three times.  Noble’s Promise was second to Lookin at Lucky in two races (Cashcall Futurity and Rebel Stakes) and ran third to Lucky and Vale of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile; however, his off the board finish in the Arkansas Derby would have made for some nervous nights for his connections under the point system.  If the system is modified to give some credit to the Illinois Derby (as I think it will be), then Noble’s Promise would likely have been excluded or been the last horse in.  Unfortunately for racing fans, the point system rewards wins and not rigorous campaigns that allow fans and bettors to know a horse.  For trainers like Todd Pletcher keeping Derby prospects separate until the last minute will become even more essential, and the first Saturday in May will become more of a guessing game than it already is. 
            It is hard to draw conclusions from only three years of retroactive application, but it appears that between 20 to 25 points will be the minimum to make the field in most years.  Unfortunately, a horse only needs to finish in the money in two lower tier races or hit the board in one of the Grade 1 preps to achieve this goal.  The fact that a talented, game horse like Noble’s Promise might be excluded from the Derby field is equally troubling.  The systems emphasis on “winning” without regard for who you raced seems to reward trainers who protect their horses from competition until absolutely necessary.  Stakes races with small field or hopelessly outmatched runners are bad for the sport.  This situation is unlikely to improve as horses race less and foal crops are smaller. 
Similarly, the exclusion of the Illinois Derby while treating the UAE Derby as the equivalent of the Arkansas Derby lacks justification and common sense.  While no one waits to pick their Derby horse until after they run the Illinois Derby, this exclusion seems more a result of corporate strategy or snobbery than anything else.  If you are only looking at performance in the Kentucky Derby, then horses exiting the Illinois Derby along with their counterparts from the Louisiana Derby and Bluegrass Stakes rarely appear among the top three finishers of the Kentucky Derby. 
As I hope to discuss in the next post, this “point” system smacks more of marketing and television than any real effort to improve the field quality.  It is overly complex and picks and chooses “favorite” races to reward with higher points.  A simpler and fairer system might have been to (i) exclude all graded earnings from races at less than a mile, (ii) exclude graded earnings from turf races, and (iii) discount graded earnings from the two-year old campaign by half. 

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